• - Influenza Season -

    Preparing for the next influenza season in the United States by helping a medical staffing agency determine when, where, and how much staff to send to each state.

     

    Objective

    To help a medical staffing agency determine when, where, and how much staff to send to states for the next flu season. The agency sends temporary workers to existing clinics, but there is no budget to hire additional personnel.

     

    People considered part of a vulnerable population* can become hospitalized because of the flu. Those hospitals would then need more staff to properly treat those extra patients. The number of deaths from influenza is an indicator of the severity of flu in that area, and deaths can be prevented with flu shots and adequate staff.

     

    *Vulnerable populations are defined by the CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention) as adults over age 65, children under age 5, pregnant people, individuals with HIV/AIDs, cancer, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, asthma, and children with neurological disorders.

    Data

    • Influenza deaths in 2009-2017 sourced from CDC (Mortality data from certain states were suppressed due to privacy. Death records identify primary cause of death. Influenza-initiated deaths not recorded.)
    • Population data from 2009-2017 sourced from US Census Bureau (Population numbers are estimates.)
    • Influenza visits from 2010-2019 sourced from CDC (Fluview) (Data from Florida suppressed due to privacy. Contains number of medial providers, not individual staff count.)
    • Project brief

    Skills

    • Designing a data research project
    • Sourcing, cleaning, and profiling data
    • Data integration and transformation
    • Statistical hypothesis testing
    • Visual analysis and forecasting
    • Visualization in Tableau

    Tools

    • Microsoft Excel
    • Microsoft Word
    • Tableau

  • Number of Deaths & Population Size

    Line chart of influenza deaths by state from 2009-2017 with a forecast of 2018

    Number of Deaths

    Looking at total deaths from influenza by state during 2009-2017, we can see that California and New York have the most deaths.

     

    The shaded areas are a forecast for deaths in 2018.

    Tree map of each state's population and vulnerable population from 2009-2017

    Population Size

    Comparing the number of deaths to population size and vulnerable population (age 65+) size, we can see a relationship start to form.

     

    States with larger populations (such as California and New York) tend to have larger vulnerable populations, resulting in more deaths.

    Vulnerable Population

    We don't have data on all members of the vulnerable population, but we do have data on those age 65 and over.

    Pie chart of the average population comparing those over and under age 65

    More people ages 65 and older die from influenza than those under age 65.

     

    This, unfortunately, is true for all states and every year from the data we have (2009-2017.)

     

    On average, people age 65 and over make up 14% of the total population, but account for 91% of all influenza deaths.

    Pie chart of average influenza deaths comparing those over and under age 65
    Bar chart of influenza deaths by month in 2017

    Seasonality

    Most states have an influenza season from December to March. That is when influenza deaths are at their highest.

     

    Some states, such as Florida and New Jersey, show an increase in the months before the season.

     

    16% of all states have influenza peaks outside of the season.

    Tree map of medical staff reallocation based on 2017 staff numbers

    Staff Reallocation Proposal

    This reallocation tree map is based on each state’s percentage of the country's total vulnerable population. That percentage was then applied to the current number of staff in 2017.

     

    By using vulnerable population numbers, we can send more staff to areas with more people at risk to prevent deaths.

     

    (Florida’s current staff number was not provided, and is an estimate based on the national average population and average number of patients seen per provider.)

    Priority map of states

    Priority Map

    This map breaks down states by priority using the average population of those over 65 and the average number of deaths.

    There are two sections for each level (high, medium, low) to give the categories more specificity.

     

    Our high priority states are California, Florida, New York, Texas, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Illinois.

     

    Alaska and Hawaii are both low priority states.

  • Conclusion & Recommendations

    Staff Deployment

    Relocate staff based on the size of a state’s vulnerable population and priority status.

    Timing

    Staff should mainly be deployed from December to March, but can be sent in November and April to get ahead of the influenza season.

    Continued Monitoring

    Monitor the upcoming influenza season to determine success of analysis. Staff should be surveyed for input and to refine logistics of deployment.

    Prevention

    Promotion of influenza vaccinations and prevention can help reduce cases across all states.

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